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The Russian economy's global GDP share is expected to decline during President Vladimir Putin's fifth term, reaching its lowest level since the end of the Soviet Union, according to the International Monetary Fund. Despite Western-led sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the IMF upgraded its forecast for Russia's economic growth to 3.2 percent in 2024, raising questions about the effectiveness of sanctions. However, other IMF data shows that Russia's share of global GDP will shrink between now and 2029. The country's GDP share is expected to increase slightly in 2024, but then gradually decrease until the end of the decade. Russia's economy has rebounded more strongly than expected in 2023, with a GDP growth of 3.6 percent, driven by military spending, trade with China, and increases in corporate investment and private consumption. However, Russia also faces a significant labor shortage and high inflation. Despite robust growth predicted for this year, Russia's GDP growth is expected to dip sharply from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent in 2025, according to the IMF. Brendan Cole, a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK, covers Russia and Ukraine, as well as other areas of geopolitics including China.
