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Exclusive | Has a ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ been set? Graham Allison gauges risks of US-China war

Exclusive | Has a ‘Thucydides’ Trap’ been set? Graham Allison gauges risks of US-China war
Amid numerous risk factors, China’s ascension and America’s predominance appear destined for inevitable conflict.

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Exclusive: Political scientist Graham Allison gauges risks that could send US-China tensions into armed conflict

In an exclusive interview, Harvard professor Graham Allison discusses his recent trip to China and his conversations with President Xi Jinping. He notes that Xi Jinping is confident and determined to make China great again. Allison also highlights the recent trend lines in US-China relations, suggesting a shift towards a more constructive relationship.

Allison warns that the US and China are classic Thucydidean rivals, with 75% of the situation already baked in. He emphasizes the need for both countries to learn from past cases and manage their rivalry to prevent a military conflict.

The interview also delves into the challenges posed by the differences in political systems between the US and China, as well as the implications of China's informal alliance with Russia. Allison suggests that the US needs a clear long-term strategy to address the China challenge, especially in the face of competing priorities and global challenges.

The discussion also touches on the intensified competition for scarce resources, such as semiconductors, and the potential implications for US-China relations. Allison believes that while the tech rivalry will be fierce, it will not be a decisive factor for war.

Overall, the interview provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of US-China relations and the challenges both countries face in managing their rivalry.