Table of Contents
China's exports to developed markets have stagnated for years, but have doubled to the Global South, according to a recent analysis. The rise in exports to the Global South reflects a new kind of triangular trade motivated by the 25% tariff on some $200 billion of Chinese imports that the Trump administration imposed in 2019. China has also come to dominate industries such as electric vehicles, solar panels, digital infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and electronic equipment. The rise in Chinese exports to the Global South has occurred almost without comment by American analysts, who have been proven wrong in their forecasts about China's decline. The US policy community has been unable to admit that it was collectively wrong, and is now grasping for an explanation of Chinese success. This has led to the popular meme that China has created "overcapacity" in manufacturing and threatens the world with a "second China shock." However, the data shows that China is exporting less to developed markets and more to the Global South, which has virtually unlimited demand for certain products. This has led to the conclusion that US policymaking towards China has been a humiliating failure.
